The prospects for North Korea's survival

North Korea is in a severe economic crisis, and its leadership in transition between the late Kim Il Sung and his son, Kim Jong Il. The regime is preoccupied with its own survival, and is unwilling to undertake the reforms necessary to solve its economic problems for fear that doing so will lead to its downfall. Pyongyang has instead sought international humanitarian assistance to feed its starving people, and has used its nuclear programme to engage with Washington. At the same time, however, it remains hostile to South Korea, and hence to the US. South Korea is keen to reduce tensions on the Peninsula, and also seeks to prevent the regime in the North from collapsing. Along with North Korea's other regional neighbours, Seoul is offering assistance to keep the regime in place and, in time, possibly bring about change. These efforts are unlikely to maintain the regime indefinitely. In the meantime, North Korea will continue to pose a threat to regional stability.